Entertainment-news‘American Sniper’ Looking At Record $59.3M 2nd Weekend, ‘Boy Next Door’ Showing Muscle – Friday Noon Update

UPDATE, 12:57PM: Noon industry estimates are flying in, and Warner Bros. American Sniper is looking at setting another enormous record weekend with a projected $59.3M.  If that number holds through Sunday, that’s the second highest weekend ever for a film in January, after Sniper‘s gigantic FSS of $89.3M. Friday alone looks to be $17.45M, which is just under what the Clint Eastwood film posted on MLK Monday ($17.9M).  By the end of the weekend, American Sniper will be short of $200M by $5M in its domestic cume — again, just jawdropping numbers for this war hero film. One exhibitor chief wowed to Deadine that “American Sniper is playing everywhere, not just the flyover states.  There’s a been a little controversy about the film from blue and red audiences, but that’s what makes it great: It’s a film that has moviegoers talking.”  Universal’s Blumhouse thriller The Boy Next Doorstarring Jennifer Lopez is looking quite sexy at No. 2. The $4M film is on a track to make $16.5M and a potential $6M Friday.  Following Boy Next Door are last weekend’s holdovers Paddington and The Wedding Ringer eyeing spots three and four with respective estimated weekend takes of $12.5M and $11M. Both films are looking at cumes around $40M by Sunday. Taken 3 in its third weekend is looking at $7.05M with a $2M Friday, raising its cume on Sunday to about $75.5M.  It’s not quite certain exactly where newcomers Disney’s Strange Magic and Lionsgate’s Mortdecai will rank. Strange Magic is being estimated at $1.5M for Friday and a $6M weekend, while the Johnny Depp absurdist R-rated comedy is looking at $2M today with $5.8M for the weekend. Again, these are early third-party estimates.  As we get closer to midnight tonight and multiplexes close out their cash drawers, the numbers become more certain, but this is how the weekend is looking at this point in time.

PREVIOUS, FRIDAY, 8:33 AM: Thursday night preview figures are being posted, with Universal’s Blumhouse thriller The Boy Next Door racking up $500K in 1,869 theaters. Meanwhile, Warner Bros’ American Sniper had a solid week grossing $132.3M overall, with Thursday generating $7.65M. The film came close to making $10M on Tuesday, the day after the MLK holiday. Current domestic cume for the Clint Eastwood film stands at $135.8M prior to its fifth frame. More to come.

PREVIOUS, WEDNESDAY PM: Prior to Super Bowl next weekend, three wide releases are looking to get a leg up before the big game this Friday — Lionsgate’s Johnny Depp -Gwyneth Paltrow period comedy Mortdecai, Universal’s The Boy Next Door as well as Disney’s Lucasfilm toon Strange Magic. However, it’s Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s American Sniper that is expected to secure first place again with $40-45M, an anticipated average drop of 50-55%  in its second wide frame after last weekend’s $89.3M. Fandango is reporting that its advance ticket sales for American Sniper are so strong, the film could wind up posting the second best frame ever for January.

It’s hard for distributors to put a comp on the Clint Eastwood title as there has never been an MLK release quite like it. Unlike the female demos which flocked to Kevin Hart comedies such as The Wedding Ringer and Ride Along, and the young demo which shelled out for Cloverfield,  American Sniper drew a massive older male crowd. You can’t even compareAmerican Sniper to the January carryover titan Avatar as that film was propped by 3D ticket pricing. Even comparing American Sniper to Michael Bay’s World War II film Pearl Harbor ($75.2M four-day bow, $198.5M total cume). is a stretch given that film’s Memorial Day rollout, and it’s romantic epic nature (vs. Sniper‘s as dramatic biopic of an actual Navy SEAL).  Through Tuesday, American Sniper‘s cume stands at $120.56M.  Warner Bros. will 150 engagements Friday, raising its theater count to 3,705.

Universal and Blumhouse’s Jennifer Lopez suspense film The Boy Next Door is looking to profit like its previous microbudget thrillers and horror films. The $4M film is looking to mint a figure somewhere in the low teens at 2,599 venues. Sneaks for the film will kick off after 8PM tomorrow night. The thriller is directed by Rob Cohen (who helmed the first Fast and Furious) and it is making a play for Latinos and females.  The Boy Next Door is Lopez’s third suspense thriller since 2002’s Enough ($40M) and 2001’s Angel Eyes ($24.2M), the upside this time around is that the Blumhouse title is more economically priced than those two titles which respectively cost $38M and $53M. Part of Lopez’s promotion for The Boy Next Door entailed the star’s largest Hispanic press tour ever in Miami. She visited such shows as Univision’s Despierta America for the first time as well as the network’s beauty pageant reality show Nuestra Belleza Latina. Lopez’s appearance on the season premiere of that primetime show registered a 22% uptick in ratings from its season premiere a year ago.

Lionsgate-Odd Lot Entertainment’s co-production Mortedecai stars Johnny Depp as a flamboyant art dealer-adventurer who is dodging British Spies, Russian and terrorists as he aims to lay his hands on a painting that will lead him to Nazi gold.  The film rolls out in sneaks tomorrow at 7pm.  At a cost, per industry execs, of $60M, Mortdecai which has been described as a Peter Sellers absurdist type film, and continues to provide a platform for Depp’s offbeat onscreen personalities (such as Barnabas Collins in 2012’s Dark Shadows) is eyeing $10-$12M over FSS. Lionsgate employed a heavy social media and TV marketing campaign. Six weeks out, Lionsgate targeted a broad audience with marketing integration and sponsorships across 14 networks earning nearly 100M impressions, and custom vignettes featuring the cast on Comedy Central, E!, Bravo and TBS (specifically duringConan).

Girls 7-11 are the target demo for Disney’s release of Lucasfilm’s goblin-fairy animated pic Strange Magic, given its themes of female empowerment and princess characters.  Strange Magic was directed  by Gary Rydstrom with a story penned by George Lucas, who also produces.  The animated feature was made at Lucasfilm’s Singapore studio and was in production prior to Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm. With a family release in each of the last three months — Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good ,Very Bad Day in October, Big Hero 6 in November and Into the Woods last month, Strange Magic is Disney’s January entry. And the thinking is that it will co-habit multiplexes just fine with TWC/Dimension’s Paddington in the market. Strange Magic is looking to make $10M in 3,020 theaters. However, TWC/Dimension’s bear-in-the-hat Paddington should beat out goblins and fairies with a projected $12-$13M.

Brian Brooks will weigh in further on the arthouse scene tomorrow, however, Cinelou is releasing its Jennifer Aniston drama Cake via Freestyle Releasing Friday in 465 runs in the top 75 markets.  Since the film launched at the Toronto Film Festival, Aniston has received high praise for her 180 degree method turn as a curmudgeon woman, battling chronic pain and personal tragedy.   She earned a Golden Globe nomination for best actress drama and is up for a SAG female leading actress nom this Sunday.  Expectations are that Cake makes $1.5-$2M, and will expand accordingly.

In addition, Focus Features is releasing its submarine Jude Law thriller Black Sea bows in two theaters in New York and three in Los Angeles.  The R-rated film will expand nationwide on January 30.